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A key question then is: Which of the two future Atlantic hurricane scenarios inferred from the statistical relations in Figure 1 is more likely? To try to gain insight on this question, we have first attempted to go beyond the ~50 year historical record of Atlantic hurricanes and SST to examine even longer records of Atlantic tropical storm activity and second to examine dynamical models of Atlantic hurricane activity under global warming conditions. These separate approaches are discussed below.

A key question then is: Which of the two future Atlantic hurricane scenarios inferred from the statistical relations in Figure 1 is more likely?

To gain more insight on this problem, we have attempted to analyze much longer (> 100 yr) records of Atlantic hurricane activity. If greenhouse warming causes a substantial increase in Atlantic hurricane activity, then the century scale increase in tropical Atlantic SSTs since the late 1800s should have produced a long-term rise in measures of Atlantic hurricanes activity, similar to that seen for global temperature, for example.

Existing records of past Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane numbers (1878 to present) in fact do show a pronounced upward trend, which is also correlated with rising SSTs (e.g., see blue curve in Fig. 4 or Zales 1/2 CT Tw Enhanced Black and White Diamond CrissCross Ring in Sterling Silver Size 7 JDViSxU
). However, the density of reporting ship traffic over the Atlantic was relatively sparse during the early decades of this record, such that if storms from the modern era (post 1965) had hypothetically occurred during those earlier decades, a substantial number of storms would likely not have been directly observed by the ship-based “observing network of opportunity.” We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there remains just a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. Statistical tests indicate that this trend is not significantly distinguishable from zero (Figure 2). In addition, Landsea et al. (2010) note that the rising trend in Atlantic tropical storm counts is almost entirely due to increases in short-duration (<2 day) storms alone. Such short-lived storms were particularly likely to have been overlooked in the earlier parts of the record, as they would have had less opportunity for chance encounters with ship traffic.

not significantly distinguishable from

If we instead consider Atlantic basin hurricanes, rather than all Atlantic tropical storms, the result is similar: the reported numbers of hurricanes were sufficiently high during the 1860s-1880s that again there is no significant positive trend in numbers beginning from that era (Figure 3, black curve, from Angara Two Stone Diamond Infinity Knot Ring with Prong Set uVXZbl
). This is without any adjustment for “missing hurricanes”.

The evidence for an upward trend is even weaker if we look at U.S. landfalling hurricanes, which even show a slight negative trend beginning from 1900 or from the late 1800s (Figure 3, blue curve). Hurricane landfalling frequency is much less common than basin-wide occurrence, meaning that the U.S. landfalling hurricane record, while more reliable than the basin-wide record, suffers from degraded signal-to-noise characteristics for assessing trends.

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The Midwest Medical Examiner's Office in Anoka County has ruled the deaths of Willie and Gloria Scheel, a homicide.
Author: KARE
Published: 4:39 PM CDT March 22, 2018
Updated: 10:17 PM CDT March 23, 2018

PAYNESVILLE, Minn. - An elderly couple from Paynesville found dead Thursday evening in rural Kandiyohi County was murdered, according to an autopsy report.

Wilbert (Willie) Scheel, 93, and his wife, Gloria, 80, were reported missing Wednesday night, along with their grandson, 34-year-old Greg Scheel, who lived with them.

According to the Stearns County Sheriff's Office, the Scheel's missing vehicle was located on County Road 5 on the east side of Game’s Lake in Kandiyohi County. The caller reported the vehicle appeared to be stuck in the mud and had been there for some time.

The sheriff's office reports while the vehicle was being processed, agents and investigators found the bodies of Willie and Gloria Scheel inside the vehicle under some carpet. The Midwest Medical Examiner’s Office in Anoka County has ruled the cause of death as a homicide.

Greg Scheel (Credit: MN BCA)

The sheriff's office reports, shortly after the Scheel's vehicle was removed from the scene, a caller reported a man on County Road 5 south of where the vehicle had been located. Authorities identified the man as Greg Scheel and took him into custody.

After further investigation, the Stearns County Sheriff's Office says it determined that probable cause existed to place Greg Scheel under arrest for two counts of intentional second-degree murder. Scheel has not yet been charged with the crimes. KARE 11 typically does not name a suspect in a crime until they are formally charged, however, the Stearns County Sheriff's Office made Greg Scheel's name public Thursday as part of a missing person report, in this case.

Scheel's home. (Credit: KARE 11)

"I could point to their pew every Sunday."

Words from Pastor Bob Kandels at Grace United Methodist Church in Paynesville about Wilbert and Gloria Scheel.

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February 15, 2017
Georgetown students enjoy a vibrant campus life that is shaped by Washington, D.C.’s status as a global hub of policy, attention to cultural and community experiences and by a more than 400-year tradition of Jesuit education.
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July 1, 2016
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Obama Salutes Georgetown Leadership on University Charter Anniversary